Bank behavior, interest rate targeting and monetary policy transmission by Oliver Hülsewig
(
mixd
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English
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In this paper, we address the existence of the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Germany by means of a structural analysis of aggregate bank loan data. The analysis is based on a stylized model of the banking firm that characterizes the loan supply decisions of banks when monetary policy is implemented through an interest rate targeting. Using the model as a guide, we apply a vector error correction (VECM) suggested by Johansen (1988) that allows to derive long-run loan supply and loan demand relationships by imposing restrictions on cointegration vectors. The short-run dynamics of the VECM is investigated on the basis of impulse response analysis, which sets out the impact of a monetary policy shock on the variables in the system. Empirical evidence in support of the credit channel can be reported.
Bank behavior and the cost channel of monetary transmission by Oliver Hülsewig
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mixd
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This paper presents a New Keynesian model that dwells on the role of banks in the cost channel of monetary policy. Banks extend loans to firms in an environment of monopolistic competition by setting the loan rate according to a Calvo-type staggered price setting approach, which means that the adjustment of the aggregate loan rate to a monetary policy shock is sticky. We estimate the model for the Euro area by adopting a minimum distance approach. Our findings exhibit that, first, frictions on the loan market influence the propagation of monetary policy shocks as the pass-through of a change in the money market rate to the loan rate is incomplete, and, second, the cost channel is operating, but the effect is weak since inflation is driven by real unit labor costs rather than the loan rate. Our main conclusion is that the strength of the cost channel is mitigated as banks shelter firms from monetary policy shocks by smoothing lending rates.
Bank Loan Supply and Monetary Policy Transmission in Germany: An Assessment based on Matching Impulse Responses by Oliver Hülsewig
(
mixd
)
in
English
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This paper addresses the credit channel in Germany by using aggregate data. We present a stylized model of the banking firm, in which banks decide on their loan supply in the light of uncertainty about the future course of monetary policy. Applying a vector error correction model (VECM), we estimate the response of bank loans after a monetary policy shock in consideration of the reaction of the output level and the loan rate. We estimate our model to characterize the response of bank loans by matching the theoretical impulse responses with the empirical impulse responses to a monetary policy shock. Evidence in support of the credit channel can be reported.
Forecasting Euro area real GDP: optimal pooling of information by Oliver Hülsewig
(
mixd
)
in
English
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This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are derived by optimally pooling the information contained in national indicator series. Following the ideas of predictive modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by utilizing weights that minimize the variance of the out-of-sample forecast errors of the area-wide target variable. In an out-of-sample forecast experiment we find that our optimal pooling of information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy.
